What awaits the real estate market? A real estate market that runs on its own. Calculate yourself: online calculators

Causes of destabilization.

Now we are witnessing a decline in the market: prices for old properties are falling, sales volumes for new buildings are decreasing, and the total number of transactions and issued mortgage loans has decreased. This state of affairs developed gradually, over 2-3 years, due to the following factors:
1. Imposition of sanctions against our country, a ban on the acquisition of foreign securities by large domestic investors.
2. Lack of stable income growth for potential buyers, inability to pay burdensome mortgage payments.
3. Changes in exchange rates, problems with foreign currency mortgages in rubles, rising interest rates, tightening mortgage requirements for borrowers.
4. Limited period of the program for issuing mortgage loans with government support.
5. Increase in the cost of construction of new housing, bankruptcy of construction companies, decrease in the amount of housing investment.
According to experts, we should not expect a sharp increase in the real estate market next year.

Further decline in real estate prices in 2017.

The forecast for real estate prices in 2017 confirms the general downward trend. The Ural Chamber of Real Estate believes that 2017 and 2018 will be disastrous years for sales on the market. If now there is only a slight decrease in profitability, then a collapse in housing sales is possible in the future. In the secondary housing market, experts expect a reduction in prices per square meter. For example, in Yekaterinburg the cost is predicted to decrease by 5 - 7%. This state of affairs in the market can be called beneficial for buyers. Right now you can choose from a wide variety of offers a suitable apartment at a reduced cost. If previously a consumer could afford a 1-2 room apartment, now at the same price you can look for a 2-3 room apartment or a larger one.

High probability of crisis.

To Gennady Sternik, a professor at the Russian University of Economics, the growth of the real estate market seems possible only after 2017. Moreover, a significant increase in prices can only be seen in 2019. Until then, the situation will only worsen, leading to a crisis, the nadir of which will be in 2017. The construction of new housing will be frozen or suspended, and companies will abandon large projects. The scientist attributes the stagnation in the housing market to the lack of growth in household incomes. Some experts warn that the 2017 real estate market could reach its worst performance in years. The situation is expected to change for the better only by 2020. The crisis will have the least impact on large cities, but in small towns and villages, given the low income of the population, the decrease in the number of transactions will be more noticeable.

The crisis of new buildings.

Currently, new buildings are being purchased sluggishly by consumers. Often in a new building up to half of the apartments are empty. This situation will continue for a long time, notes Vyacheslav Trapeznikov, executive director of the Guild of Builders of the Urals. Real estate prices for new buildings most likely will not decrease in 2017. It is extremely unprofitable for developers to sharply reduce prices, even for the sake of increasing sales volumes. Builders will not work at a loss, so the market for new buildings will most likely pause without any sudden movements, waiting for better times. Some analysts note the possibility of rising prices against the backdrop of rising construction costs. The consequence of these actions will naturally be a decrease in the number of objects put into operation, which means that a shortage of new buildings is possible in the future.

Growing consumer demand for real estate in 2017.

However, the real estate market forecast for 2017 predicts not only the emergence of negative trends. According to the head of Sberbank, German Gref, if there is at least some positive dynamics in the market, it will only be in the area of ​​demand. Now most real estate investors are frozen in anticipation of an even greater drop in prices on the secondary market. A surge in consumer interest is expected in 2017. But, despite the current favorable housing prices, an increase in prices cannot be expected in the near future. Therefore, investors who want to quickly take advantage of changes in real estate prices will have to wait. Thus, the period for investment is favorable, but there will be no quick profit. To summarize, we note that most opinions are inclined to expect a further decline in the real estate market in 2017. If in 2015 - 2016 the real estate market still reacted normally, and consumers remained solvent thanks to the pre-crisis safety cushions, then in 2017 the safety margin will end and a crisis will begin. Unfortunately, analytical data does not provide comforting forecasts. Prices for secondary housing will continue to decline, which will lead to an increase in demand. But one cannot expect a significant reduction in prices for new buildings, since in recent years there has been a tendency for housing costs to increase. A market collapse is likely, which is why a number of anti-crisis measures need to be taken in advance. As for real estate and construction organizations, they still have time to develop a program of action taking into account the possibility of a crisis.

The real estate market is the segment of the economy that reacts especially sharply to crisis processes. The negative dynamics of oil prices, the instability of the ruble exchange rate, and the slowdown in economic growth are contributing to a fall in housing prices. What will happen to real estate prices in 2019: should investors invest their money in houses and apartments now or wait for better times? Authoritative experts provide answers to this question.

What factors influence the Russian real estate market?

The Russian economy continues to operate in a crisis, and therefore the real estate market also remains in a very tense situation, due to:

• An active decline in demand, which is provoked by an increase in mortgage rates and the reluctance of citizens to make large purchases in an unstable macroeconomic situation;
• A decrease in construction volumes due to rising prices for materials and more difficult conditions for obtaining bank loans for developers.

It is worth paying special attention to factors that negatively affect the functioning of the Russian real estate market:

• Extension of sanctions by Western countries, which prevents domestic banks from accessing cheap external sources of capital and excludes the possibility of reducing interest rates on housing loans.
• A decrease in the real income of citizens, which does not allow them to make onerous mortgage payments.
• The fall in the ruble exchange rate, putting holders of foreign currency mortgages at an extremely disadvantageous position.
• Complicating conditions for obtaining housing loans, which is reflected in rising interest rates and tightening requirements for borrowers.

Considering the above circumstances, experts believe that 2019 and 2020 will be the most difficult years for the Russian real estate market. According to sociological surveys, even in the current 2019, every 10th Russian postponed the purchase of housing for several years, and every 6th decided to postpone this event for an indefinite future. Therefore, in 2019-2020. there will be a significant reduction in demand.

Recovery will only occur in 2019-2020. influenced by falling mortgage rates, the implementation of government support programs in the real estate sector and assistance from regional authorities.

What do the experts say?

The reduction in demand in the Russian real estate market in 2019 will provoke a further decline in prices of houses and apartments. This forecast is given by all experts without exception.

Professor of the Russian Economic University named after. G.V. Plekhanov, leading analyst of the Russian real estate market Gennady Sternik

In 2019, the likelihood of deepening stagnation in the market for residential and non-residential properties is extremely high. The market recovery will begin only in 2020. As a result, Russian realtors should prepare for an active reduction in the cost of objects. The situation will be complicated by the fact that developers will reduce the supply of real estate in response to falling prices. At the same time, next year can be considered the most favorable time for investment, which can definitely be sold at a higher price later.

President of the Russian Guild of Realtors (RGR) Tatyana Demenyuk

Real estate prices will fall even further in 2019. The minimum reduction will be 5-7%. However, it will be possible to judge how much the market price can realistically be reduced only at the end of the year. First of all, the fall will affect old housing (built in the 60-80s) on the outskirts, which has low liquidity.

President of the Ural Chamber of Real Estate Eduard Bogdanov

If 2016 was comfortable for buyers of real estate, since the market presented them with a significant number of options, giving them the opportunity to bargain and wait, then in 2019 the situation will be different: along with a significant decrease in value, there will be a reduction in supply by approximately 40%.

Executive Director of the Guild of Builders of the Urals

In new buildings in 2019, real estate prices will decline, which will lead to a “freezing” of the primary real estate market. Developers will not want to work at a loss and will therefore reduce supply.

Thus, the forecasts of most analysts predict a further decline in prices for the Russian real estate market in 2019. However, there are also opinions according to which the segment of purchase and sale of houses and apartments will begin to be rehabilitated in 2019 due to the gradual stabilization of the economy. This point of view is shared by the head of Sberbank German Gref. However, the exact picture of the cost, demand and supply of houses and apartments in Russia will only be clear at the end of this year.

Prices in the real estate market have remained unchanged for a long period, while the downward trend continues. Based on the results of 2017, we can say that favorable conditions have emerged for purchasing real estate, which is also associated with a decrease in mortgage rates, which reaches 7% per annum. There are preferential programs, government subsidies, and discounts from developers. So is it worth buying a home or is it better to postpone the deal until next year? What are the prospects for the real estate market? Is investing in housing profitable and economically justified?

The situation on the real estate market at the end of 2017

At the end of 2017, the real estate market shows a downward trend in prices, which makes it possible to purchase housing at a moderate price. Population demand is limited, and supply is constantly growing. In Moscow the following situation arises:

Developers are constantly running promotions, partnerships and price discounts for clients, which is caused by fierce competition in the industry. At the end of 2017, prices did not increase, but the commissioning of new buildings increased significantly.

Should residents of the capital buy apartments with a mortgage or is it better to wait until next year? Experts believe that the current situation in the real estate market is the most favorable for purchasing housing. The lowest mortgage rate is 6.75%, it is subsidized by the developer. Of course, we can expect that in the coming years a promotional rate of 6% will be applied, but it is already profitable to purchase apartments.
Today, mortgage rates have dropped significantly, and banks are implementing a variety of schemes for purchasing properties. Even if the mortgage turns out to be more profitable in 2018, you can refinance the existing loan.
Should I buy a home with a mortgage or is it better to save the required amount? Of course, each person decides this independently. If you find a suitable apartment that suits you completely at the price, it’s worth taking out a loan. If there are no optimal offers on the market yet, you can continue saving. True, there is a risk of financial turmoil and loss of savings, as was the case in 2014. For those who save, it is better to convert more than half of their savings into foreign currency and put it in Sberbank or VTB - in cash in a safe deposit box.

The price tag for housing from the developer turns out to be lower due to low demand and the impressive volume of square meters put into operation. How much money is needed to purchase a primary home?

In general, buying an apartment from a developer is the most attractive option. Not only are there promotions and reduced rates waiting for you, but the prices are affordable. So, by choosing an apartment in the new Liner complex and paying 100% of its cost, you will receive designer finishes and a kitchen equipped with modern appliances.

Should we expect that housing prices in Moscow will decrease and that buying apartments will be much more profitable than now? This trend exists, but making long-term forecasts is problematic. Experts believe that by 2021 prices will reach the following levels:

But it’s not worth talking about the average price, because it depends not only on the prospects for market development, the level of supply and demand, but also on the selected object, its location, and the availability of infrastructure.
The investment attractiveness of real estate, although reduced based on the results of previous years, will still remain. It is still advisable to invest money at the construction stage and then resell the apartments on assignment. There are still classic investors on the market who purchase square meters for resale in a few years, as well as for rental.
There is no need to expect a sharp reduction in prices in 2018, although buyers may find an interesting offer due to impressive discounts from the developer. However, usually promotions do not apply to the entire volume of apartments - it is impossible to guarantee that the offer will suit you. One cannot count on a significant reduction in prices - the cost of housing is already extremely low, and given the constant rise in price of land, building materials and construction, developers simply cannot afford even greater discounts.
It’s really worth buying an apartment with a mortgage today, especially if your savings are not growing fast enough. If you manage to save at least 100-200 thousand a month, you should wait so as not to borrow a large amount from the bank.
real estate market prospects,

The situation on the real estate market at the end of 2017 The real estate market at the end of 2017 shows a downward trend in prices, which makes it possible to purchase housing at a reasonable price. Population demand is limited, and supply is constantly growing. In Moscow the following situation arises:

• Real estate is of less and less interest to investors and speculators planning to invest money in the short term;
• Unlike the market in other cities, luxury housing is in great demand in the capital - developers are erecting premium class buildings. Thus, over 140 thousand sq.m. will soon appear in Ramenki. business class housing;
• It is advisable to invest money in the early stages of construction, for example, in the Garden Quarters complex, the price of a meter is initially 450 thousand rubles, and at the readiness stage it increases to 600 thousand;
• The quality of facilities has improved significantly compared to the last decade. As competition grows, so does the level of comfort - comfort-class facilities are equipped with developed infrastructure and unusual planning solutions;
• The boundaries between housing classes are blurring, and you can buy a comfort-level apartment even cheaper than the economy segment.
• Apartments with small areas and corresponding prices are still in great demand. Not everyone can afford to buy a large and comfortable apartment in Moscow right away.

Mortgage – is it worth taking out in 2017?

What is more profitable: housing outside the Moscow Ring Road or within it?

1. If proximity to the center is not important, you can find a lot of interesting options outside the Moscow Ring Road. For example, in New Moscow, in the Spanish Quarters residential complex, three-room apartments are sold for 6.5 million rubles;
2. If you are looking for housing with developed infrastructure nearby, one-room apartments are the most affordable budget option. For 5.3 million you can buy a studio on Khodynka Field with the Aquapark shopping center, schools and kindergartens nearby;
3. Secondary housing is sold at a price that directly depends on the location of the building and the desires of the owner.

Prospects for the development of the real estate market: what to expect?

• Secondary housing – 100-140 thousand rubles per sq.m.;
• New economy class buildings – 100 thousand;
• Comfort segment housing – 120-140 thousand;
• Business class – less than 200 thousand.

Serious crisis phenomena in the Russian and global economies contribute to stagnation in the housing market, lower prices and, accordingly, a fall in real demand of the population.

The situation in the real estate market today is characterized by a decrease in sales volumes, a fall in prices for residential properties of the old stock, a decrease in the total number of transactions and mortgage loans issued by banks.

Such trends have been formed gradually, over the past 2-3 years, due to the following reasons:

• the introduction of political and economic sanctions against Russia, a ban on the acquisition of securities by large Russian investment companies and private businessmen abroad;
• increasing the cost of new buildings being built;
• reduction in volumes and, as a consequence, bankruptcy of construction companies;
• a decrease in the solvency of potential buyers and the lack of stable growth in their income, difficulties in paying off debt;
• instability of exchange rates, which creates a problem with mortgages in foreign currency when converted into Russian rubles;
• increasing interest rates on newly issued mortgage loans and tightening bank requirements for potential borrowers and collateral;
• term limits and subsidies.

All this had a negative impact on pricing processes in the housing market, sales and rental volumes of residential properties.

Supply and Demand Relationship

Most of the forecasts of Russian economists boil down to the general opinion that in 2017 we should expect a continuation of the general trend of recession and falling real estate prices. If in 2015-2016 there was a gradual decline in the income of citizens and the demand for housing and commercial real estate, then in the next year it is possible to reach the “bottom” or collapse of the market.

Moreover, this process will be protracted, lasting from 2 to 4 years.

The phase of rapid decline will be characterized by the following phenomena:

1. new housing will most likely strive to minimize risks by reducing the volume of commissioned space, and will choose the construction of only financially profitable objects as the main direction of their activity. This policy will lead to a permanent reduction in the scale of real estate commissioning.
2. The level of solvency of the Russian population will continue to fall rapidly and the purchase of real estate or improvement of living conditions will become secondary. The level of demand decline in this situation is projected to be 30% compared to the current year. This will lead to a freeze in the construction of new buildings, an increase in the share of unsold space within a new home to 50% and a shift in emphasis to the secondary real estate market.
3. The situation on the secondary market will be ambiguous. From the beginning of 2017, the state subsidy program with preferential interest rates for the purchase of new housing will be abolished. This will lead to attracting a share of buyers from the primary market. Considering the categories of real estate on the secondary market, it is expected that the cost per square meter in the old stock will become cheaper with a similarly declining demand, and prices for luxury apartments and commercial space will remain at the current level or decrease slightly. This is usually due to the lack of flexibility of sellers and their reluctance to reduce the price under any circumstances (even if the sales process is delayed for a long time).
4. The reluctance of banks to reduce annual rates on mortgage loans, stringent requirements for real estate and potential borrowers will also contribute to a fall in the volume of their mortgage portfolios, which will negatively affect the level of demand.
5. The commercial and residential rental market will be similarly affected by crisis phenomena in the form of a strong collapse in the volume of rented premises. In the residential real estate segment, tenants will focus on apartments and rooms with smaller areas and low monthly rents. In the category of commercial properties, the trend of a significant reduction in the cost of 1 square meter will continue in order to be sold by any means. In 2017, this market will be more affected by the issue of imbalance between supply and demand towards a strong imbalance of the latter.

Stabilization of the current situation is expected by 2019-2020.

It is by this period that the start of recovery and a gradual return to pre-crisis levels is predicted.

Housing price level in 2017

Most experts who predict the development of the real estate market in the near future do not dare to voice specific figures and housing prices.

The situation will have an individual scenario in each specific region. Moscow, St. Petersburg and some other largest cities of the Russian Federation will most likely experience a period of sharp price decline.

In the context of new economic realities, the cost will approach its real value, which will only have a positive impact on the further development of the housing and commercial real estate market.

Some experts voice the opinion that prices will fall next year by 5-7%, others expect a decline of more than 10-15%. Let's analyze the forecasts and conclusions of leading Russian real estate experts.

Real estate experts' opinion

The head of Sberbank of Russia G. Gref gives a forecast for the development of the Russian real estate market, based on the fact that positive dynamics will be observed only in relation to demand. According to him, most investors expect an even greater rate of decline in prices on the secondary market. And despite the relatively favorable prices of residential real estate, growth is not expected in the next few years.

2016-2017 is a favorable period for investing without the possibility of obtaining a quick margin. To do this you will have to wait about five years.

Professor of the Russian University of Economics G. Sternik suggests a decline in the real estate market in Russia since 2017. In his opinion, prices and demand for housing will decline at least until 2019. Next year the real estate market will reach its lowest point. A large number of newly constructed new buildings will be frozen, construction companies will refuse to undertake large projects due to a sharp drop in the solvency of the country's citizens. The crisis will hit small cities the hardest, where the decline in the volume of transactions will be more noticeable than in cities with a population of over a million.

The forecast presented by the Ural Chamber of Real Estate also assumes the development of a crisis in the Russian real estate market. There will be a sharp decline in sales volumes in 2017-2018. To a greater extent, this will affect housing from the old stock, as well as those built on the outskirts of cities. This will oblige developers of new houses to improve the quality of construction and landscaping, thus attracting potential buyers.

The current year, according to the chamber's experts, is the most favorable period for purchasing residential real estate due to the presence of many profitable offers in both the primary and secondary markets. State support and lower mortgage rates in the near future will help to positively influence the situation on the real estate market.

The real estate market forecast for 2017 is negative in the field of construction of new buildings, as there will be a sharp decrease in supply and the freezing of many investment projects.

The crisis will lead to a clear imbalance between supply and demand with a clear predominance of the latter and a significant drop in sales volumes and prices for real estate.

Let's analyze the main reasons for the decline in the segment. 2015 was characterized by a sharp decline in prices for main types of real estate. In Moscow alone, apartments have fallen in price by an average of 10-15%, taking into account the discount. 2016 began according to a similar scenario. This was due to the following reasons:

• falling oil prices;
• decline in effective demand, increase in supply;
• high level of inflation;
• increase in interest rates on loans.

According to analysts' forecasts for real estate prices in 2017, we will face a recession. This phenomenon is characterized by the following main features:

• demand falls below supply;
• construction volumes are declining;
• supply growth slows down;
• There is a decline in real estate prices.

The slowdown in demand was stopped by the behavior of buyers. They responded to falling housing prices, as well as rumors about the end of government subsidies for mortgages, by increasing investments in residential and non-residential assets. However, this trend quickly ended for one simple reason - a reduction in household incomes.

What awaits us in 2017

According to the forecast of the head of Sberbank, Mr. Gref, the real estate market of our country will recover in 2017. However, many experts consider this position to be unreasonably optimistic. According to most experts, the pessimistic scenario for market development will continue.

A decrease in real estate prices, according to analysts from REU. G.V. Plekhanov, in 2017 it is inevitable. There will also be a reduction in effective demand and supply, as well as an even greater slowdown in construction. Experts from the Ural Chamber came to similar conclusions.

At the same time, one cannot fail to note the factors that can save the real estate market from further collapse. Among them:

• reduction in mortgage lending rates;
• strengthening government support for construction;
• assistance from regional authorities and the Government.

If these measures are not taken, the Russian market will face an inevitable collapse. Thus, according to the forecast, real estate prices in Russia will decrease in 2017.

Learning to live in new realities

According to most experts, the current market crisis resembles the situation in 2008-2009, but also has its own unique features. Overall, nothing catastrophic has happened; it’s just that all economic entities need to learn to live in new realities.

Let us highlight some positive aspects that have shown the segment’s resistance to shocks:

• developers did not get bogged down in debt and managed to accumulate a cushion of liquidity after previous booms;
• awareness of the need to take care of the turnover of this sector, as well as the need to reduce the cost of residential and non-residential assets;
• bringing prices more in line with the realities of Russia;
• the realization that there will no longer be such a rise in prices as before.

Government support for the sector

Undoubtedly, Dmitry Medvedev’s decision to extend state subsidies for mortgages until 2017 is positive news. It was approved to increase the lending limit to a total of 1 trillion. rub. The total amount of subsidies was reduced by 1 percent. For now, this measure has been extended until January 1, 2017. Until this time, a mortgage loan can be obtained at a preferential rate - the key rate is +2.5 percentage points.

As stated by the First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Mr. Shuvalov, by 2018 a progressive reduction in mortgage interest rates is expected to 7-8%, so that its subsidies will no longer be required.

Who will benefit from the current situation?

Every crisis teaches us something. If you learn from the current situation, you can get many bonuses in the future. For the last 12 years in Russia, sellers have been dictating their terms. Because of this, we had inflated property values. We are now seeing a steady trend toward the establishment of a “buyer’s market.”

According to experts, real estate prices will decline in 2017. The figures cited are 5-7%. However, no expert takes responsibility to indicate exactly how much its value will fall.

At the same time, everyone predicts a decline in the cost of housing of the old stock, as well as on the outskirts of cities. Developers will be forced to improve the quality of construction and improve the surrounding area. This is the first benefit that can be derived from this situation.

Another undoubted advantage is the reduction in the cost of real estate in Russia. In this regard, many are wondering whether it is worth investing in a home purchase now. There is no clear answer here.

Is it worth buying an apartment during a crisis?

Investing in real estate during a crisis is one of the most popular options to save money in rubles. At the same time, one cannot help but note the increase in risks from such investments as the collapse worsens.

If you are going to purchase a home for your own needs, it is better to do it immediately, before a possible deterioration in your financial situation. After all, your savings can be consumed by inflation.

If you are planning to purchase real estate for investment purposes, then you need to understand that the return on this will not come until 2020. A rapid recovery of the market in Russia after the current recession cannot be expected.

The main rule of investing is to buy when it is cheap, sell when it is expensive. However, if you are not an expert, then finding this very bottom can be problematic. Therefore, do not wait for a further drop in prices, and buy an apartment or house now, while there is a preferential mortgage rate in some banks.

However, if you do not have the required amount, then it makes sense to wait for a further drop in prices, and at the same time accumulate the missing amount.

Tips for purchasing real estate during a crisis:

• Insure yourself when purchasing a secondary home. Due to falling prices, many sellers decide to remove the property from sale. If you have already chosen an option that suits you, then it is better to conclude a deposit agreement. Indicate in it that when the property is removed from sale, the seller will have to pay you double the amount of the deposit. Better yet, conclude a pre-sale agreement and indicate in it the terms of the transaction, cost, place and method of transfer of money.
• Be careful with new buildings. Buy properties at the final stage of construction, contact only reliable developers, and monitor the construction process.

How will developers behave?

The forecast for the state of the real estate market in Russia for 2017 is negative for developers. Therefore, supply growth will slow down in the near future. We are facing a freeze on construction projects. The commissioned construction area will decrease.

Demand in the real estate market, according to experts, will begin to grow only in 2019. This will be followed by an increase in prices. Therefore, if you decide to purchase an object in the near future, it is better not to delay it.